California 16th District — Elections Intelligence

FTP RACE SIGNAL

The market has run well past this seat's history — a 16-point Democratic hold in 2024, priced at 98.5¢ today.

Safe D

SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R

Market · Safe DD 98.5¢ — traders' price for a Democratic hold.Prior result · Likely DD+16.4 in 2024.Fundraising · Lean DD 8723.24-to-1 in receipts.

Signal clarityMediumas of 2026-08-27

MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above

D 98.5¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

—

No qualifying general-election poll has been retrieved for this race.

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above

D+16.4

Sam Liccardo (D)

58.2 — 41.8 · 2024 general election

def. Evan Low (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above

D 8723.24 to 1

Sam T. Liccardo$3.49M

Peter Sundin Soulé$400

PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC

Total receipts this cycle.