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Michael Lawler

U.S. House H architectural icon OfficeHouse Republican Toss-up
INCUMBENT ON THE 2026 BALLOT TOSS-UP KALSHI · 40¢ · CHECKED 1:29 AM ET
WHAT THE SIGNAL READS ON LAWLER
THE SEAT THEY ARE IN

Toss-up

Michael Lawler is the sitting U.S. Representative for New York's 17th district and is defending it, a seat the band rates Toss-up. The market prices their contract at 40.0¢ against Conley's 62.0¢, up 8.0¢ across 25 observation days; the latest public poll has them 5 points ahead; and they have raised 1.9 dollars for every one of Conley's.

MARKET · PARTY WINNER Kalshi ↗
Michael Lawler · Republican · HOUSENY17-26-R

40.0¢

This contract settles on whether a Republican holds the seat, not on Michael Lawler by name.

▲ 8.0¢

since Aug 3

2026-08-0325 observation days · high 44.0¢ · low 29.0¢2026-09-21
Michael Lawler Republican · incumbent
40.0¢

Settles on whether a Republican holds the seat, not on this candidate by name.

Cait Conley Democratic
62.0¢

Settles on whether a Democrat holds the seat, not on this candidate by name.

DEPTH ON THIS BOOK 111,353 traded · 74,707 open

Sides may not sum to 100. Prices are the yes ask. checked 1:29 AM ET

LAWLER AGAINST CONLEY · METRIC BY METRIC
Lawler
Conley
MARKETchecked 1:29 AM ET

40.0¢

62.0¢

RAISED THIS CYCLEFederal Election Commission, through June 30, 2026

$8.17M

1.9:1 against Cait Conley

$4.32M

WHAT THEY HOLD NOW

U.S. Representative

New York's 17th district · since 2025 · defending it

Holds no office

Challenger

POLL STANDINGco/efficient · (B) · Jul 22 · n=1,292 LV

50%

5 points ahead

Latest of two public polls

45%

THE 2026 RACE · NEW YORK 17TH DISTRICT
LATEST POLL · STALE · 61 DAYSR+5co/efficient ↗ (B) 07-22 · n=1,292 · 61 days old
PRIOR MARGIN+6.312024 general election · verified against official results
STANDING · THIS SEAT
+6.312024 general election margin — verified against official results
1.9:1fundraising ratio v Conley · FEC period 06-30
FUNDRAISING
$8.17Mraised
$4.84Mcash on hand
through June 30, 2026 · checked Aug 31
· Conley: $4.32M / $1.32M CoH
COMPARE V CONLEY ⇄