Elections Intelligence

Susan M. Collins

MEU.S. Senate S architectural icon
INCUMBENT Lean D to Toss-up Competitive
Full race page →

What the Signal reads

Toss-up

Collins is the Republican incumbent, defending a seat the Signal rates Toss-up. The market has Collins at 43¢ against Jackson's 58¢, up 5¢ since July 31. The polling average has Jackson ahead by 1.7 points.

The market

Kalshi ↗
Collins · Republican contract
43.0¢
▲ 5.0¢since July 31

This contract settles on whether a Republican holds the seat, not on Susan M. Collins by name.

Jul 3148 daily readings · high 45¢ · low 28¢Oct 12
Susan M. CollinsRepublican · incumbent
43.0¢
Troy JacksonDemocratic
58.0¢

8,545,431 traded · 3,386,422 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Collins v Jackson

Metric by metric
Collins
Jackson
43.0¢
MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET
58.0¢
$16.17M
RaisedFEC, through June 30
No total for Troy Jackson: no report covering this period is on file with the Federal Election Commission.
$11.04M
Cash on handFEC, through June 30
—
46%
Latest pollWash. Post/Schar · Oct 5
50%
U.S. Senatorsince 1997
Holds now
No office on file

The 2026 race

Maine U.S. Senate
Polling average
D+1.7

Average of 13 pollsters, September 14 to October 5.

Prior result
R+8.6

2020 general election, won by Susan M. Collins.

The general election is on November 3, which is 22 days away.