Maine U.S. Senate — Elections Intelligence

FTP RACE SIGNAL

A seat that went Republican by 9 points in 2020 is now priced for the Democrat.

Lean D

SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R

Market · Lean DD 68¢ — traders' price for a Democratic hold.Polling · Toss-upD+2 — Fox News/Beacon, Aug 12.Prior result · Lean RR+8.59 in 2020.

Signal clarityHighas of 2026-08-27

The market moved 2¢ toward the Democrat in the last 7 days · polling moved 3 points toward the Democrat over 34 days.

MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above

D 68¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

D+2

Fox News/Beacon ↗ A Aug 6 - 10 · n=1,000 LV D+2 INDEPENDENT

Hart Research ↗ A- Jul 27 - Aug 1 · n=802 LV D+4 D SPONSOR

UNH ↗ C Jul 15 - 20 · n=1,178 LV D+3 INDEPENDENT

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above

R+8.59

Susan Collins (R)

50.98 — 42.39 · 2020 general election

def. Sara Gideon (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above

—

Susan M. Collins$16.17M

PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC

Total receipts this cycle.