Susan M. Collins (R) has held this seat since 1997 and is running for re-election. Before that: William Cohen (R). Troy Jackson was named the replacement Democratic nominee in July 2026.
FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
A seat that went Republican by 9 points in 2020 is now a coin flip, the Democrat narrowly ahead at 58¢.
Toss-up
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Market · Toss-upD 58¢: traders' price for a Democratic win, a flip from Republican.Polling · Toss-upD+1.7 (average of 13 pollsters, Oct 5).Prior result · Lean RR+8.59 in 2020.MarketD 58¢PollsD+1.72020 resultR+8.6
MarketD 58¢PollsD+1.72020R+8.6
Market and polls both favor Jackson.
As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above