Missouri 2nd District
DEFENDED SEAT
Also on the ballot: Brandon Coulter Daugherty (L).
FTP RACE SIGNAL
The market prices this seat about where its history left it — a 12-point Republican hold in 2024, priced at 83¢ today.
Lean R
SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R
Polling · Toss-upR+3 — FM3 Research (D), May 31.Prior result · Likely RR+12 in 2024.Market · Likely RR 83¢ — traders' price for a Republican hold.
Signal clarityMediumas of 2026-08-27
MARKET
BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above
R 83¢
Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27
View market on Kalshi ↗
POLLING
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above
R+3
PRIOR RESULT
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above
R+12
Ann Wagner (R)
54.49 — 42.5 · 2024 general election
def. Ray Hartmann (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.
FUNDRAISING
BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above
3.1 to 1
Fred Wellman$1.16M
Ann Wagner$3.53M
PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 07-15 · FEC
Total receipts this cycle. Parity — neither campaign leads by enough for fundraising to take a place on the spectrum.