California 46th District — Elections Intelligence

FTP RACE SIGNAL

The market prices this seat about where its history left it — a 27-point Democratic hold in 2024, priced at 97.7¢ today.

Safe D

SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R

Market · Safe DD 97.7¢ — traders' price for a Democratic hold.Prior result · Safe DD+26.85 in 2024.Fundraising · Lean DD 15.19-to-1 in receipts.

Signal clarityMediumas of 2026-08-27

MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above

D 97.7¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

—

No qualifying general-election poll has been retrieved for this race.

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above

D+26.85

J. Luis Correa (D)

63.43 — 36.57 · 2024 general election

def. David Pan (R). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above

D 15.19 to 1

J. Luis Correa$1.23M

David Pan$80.7K

PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC

Total receipts this cycle.