DEFENDED SEATSafe RREDISTRICTEDWhy the lines changedAlabama is going back to the map its legislature passed in 2023. A court-drawn map was used in 2024; on June 2, 2026, the U.S. Supreme Court paused a lower-court order blocking the 2023 map, so the state's own map is in use this cycle. It becomes somewhat less Republican, going from Trump +38.6 to Trump +34.6 in the 2024 presidential vote.Source ↗
Gary J. Palmer (R) has held this seat since 2015 and is running for re-election; the district was redrawn in June 2026.
PresidentialR+38.6→R+34.6Same ballots, new mapThis district’s 2024 presidential vote, counted on the old lines (R+38.6) and the new (R+34.6). Same ballots, new map.
FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
This district was redrawn in June 2026; the 2024 result on the previous lines does not describe it. The market prices the new seat at 97.6¢ Republican.
Safe R
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Fundraising · Lean RR 161.12-to-1 in receipts.Market · Safe RR 97.6¢: traders' price for a Republican hold.Prior result · Safe RR+40.75 in 2024.FundraisingR 161.12 to 1MarketR 97.6¢2024 resultR+40.8
MarketR 97.6¢2024R+40.8FundraisingR 161.12 to 1
No public polls. The market favors Palmer.
As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above
BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 10Likely10 to 20Safe20 and above
—
Prior result
BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 12Likely12 to 25Safe25 and above
R+40.8
Gary J. Palmer (R)
70.3% to 29.6% · 2024 general election · previous district linesPrevious district linesAlabama is going back to the map its legislature passed in 2023. A court-drawn map was used in 2024; on June 2, 2026, the U.S. Supreme Court paused a lower-court order blocking the 2023 map, so the state's own map is in use this cycle. It becomes somewhat less Republican, going from Trump +38.6 to Trump +34.6 in the 2024 presidential vote.Source ↗
def. Elizabeth Anderson (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.