Wisconsin 1st District — Elections Intelligence

FTP RACE SIGNAL

The market prices this seat about where its history left it — a 10-point Republican hold in 2024, priced at 71¢ today.

Lean R

SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R

Polling · Toss-upR+1 — Impact Research, Aug 13.Market · Lean RR 71¢ — traders' price for a Republican hold.Prior result · Lean RR+10.19 in 2024.

Signal clarityHighas of 2026-08-27

MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above

R 71¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

R+1

Impact Research ↗ B Aug 6 - 9 · n=400 LV R+1 D SPONSOR

Ragnar ↗ B Mar 14 - 16 · n=400 LV R+9 R SPONSOR

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above

R+10.19

Bryan Steil (R)

54.01 — 43.81 · 2024 general election

def. Peter Barca (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above

—

Bryan Steil$5.47M

PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 07-22 · FEC

Total receipts this cycle.