FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
The market is less sure of this seat than its history is: a 10-point Republican hold in 2024, priced at 64¢ today.
Lean R
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Polling · Toss-upR+3.3 (average of 3 pollsters, Oct 1).Market · Toss-upR 64¢: traders' price for a Republican hold.Fundraising · Lean RR 7.67-to-1 in receipts.Prior result · Lean RR+10.19 in 2024.PollsR+3.3MarketR 64¢FundraisingR 7.67 to 12024 resultR+10.2
MarketR 64¢PollsR+3.32024R+10.2FundraisingR 7.67 to 1
Market and polls both favor Steil.
The market moved 2¢ toward the Republican in the last 7 days.As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above
BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 10Likely10 to 20Safe20 and above
R+3.3
Impact Research ↗BSep 28 to Oct 1 · n=500 LVD+1House Majority PAC sponsorD+1 · House Majority PAC sponsor · counts as R+1 at half weight
DCCC ↗B-Sep 21 to 23 · n=495 LVEVEND sponsorEVEN · D sponsor · counts as R+2 at half weight
Ragnar ↗BMar 14 to 16 · n=400 LVR+9R sponsorR+9 · R sponsor · counts as R+7 at half weight
Average of the latest poll from each of the 3 most recent pollsters; fewer than three polled in the last 30 days. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half.
Earlier polls · 1
Impact Research ↗BAug 6 to 9 · n=400 LVR+1Berman sponsorR+1 · Berman sponsor · counts as R+3 at half weight
Prior result
BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 12Likely12 to 25Safe25 and above
R+10.2
Bryan Steil (R)
54.0% to 43.8% · 2024 general election
def. Peter Barca (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.