Elections Intelligence

Richard Pan

CA-6U.S. House H architectural icon
CHALLENGER Safe D to Lean DThe seat Favored
Full race page →

What the Signal reads

Lean D

Pan is the Democratic nominee for an open seat the Signal rates Lean D. The market has Pan at 93.3¢ against Kiley's 7.2¢, down 1.7¢ since August 3. The polling average has Pan ahead by 2.2 points, and Kiley leads 2.7 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗
Pan · Democratic contract
93.3¢
▼ 1.7¢since August 3
Aug 342 daily readings · high 97.8¢ · low 93.3¢Oct 12
Richard PanDemocratic
93.3¢
Kevin Kileyindependent
7.2¢
Republican lineNo candidate is named on this contract.
1.4¢

55,561 traded · 22,713 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Pan v Kiley

Metric by metric
Pan
Kiley
93.3¢
MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET
7.2¢
$1.10M
RaisedFEC, through June 30
$2.99M
$359.1K
Cash on handFEC, through June 30
$2.12M
36.7%
Latest pollThe Bullfinch Group, Kiley sponsor · Sep 6
36.5%
No office on file
Holds now
U.S. Representativesince 2023

The 2026 race

California 6th District
Latest poll
Pan +2.2

The Bullfinch Group, Kiley sponsor, September 6.

Prior result
D+15.2

2024 general election · previous district lines, won by Ami Bera.

Fundraising
2.7 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026, through June 30.

The general election is on November 3, which is 22 days away.