New Hampshire 2nd District — Elections Intelligence

THE MATCHUP PRIMARY SEP 08 DECIDES THE DEMOCRATIC SIDE

PRIMARY · SEP 08 · DEMOCRATIC KXNHPRIMARY-02D26 ↗

Decides which Democrat appears on the November ballot.

PB EVEN Maggie Goodlander 98¢ Paige Beauchemin 4¢

Kalshi primary market · checked 6:36 PM

NOV 3 · THE GENERAL ELECTION KXHOUSERACE-NH02-26 ↗

The settled side holds the Republican nomination. The party market prices the seat, not the people — it carries whichever Democrat wins on September 8, 2026.

DEMOCRAT 98.1¢7.4¢

KALSHI PARTY MARKET · CHECKED 08/27Democratic nomineeDetermined by the primary on September 8, 2026Republican nomineeDetermined by the primary on September 8, 2026

FTP RACE SIGNAL

The market has run well past this seat's history — a 6-point Democratic hold in 2024, priced at 98.1¢ today.

Safe D

SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R

Market · Safe DD 98.1¢ — traders' price for a Democratic hold.Polling · Likely DD+15 — St. Anselm, Aug 20.Prior result · Lean DD+5.96 in 2024.

Signal clarityHighas of 2026-08-27

Polling moved 4 points toward the Democrat over 50 days.

MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above

D 98.1¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

View market on Kalshi ↗

POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

D+15

St. Anselm ↗ Aug 17 - 18 · n=701 LV · HYPOTHETICAL MATCHUP D+15 INDEPENDENT

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above

D+5.96

Maggie Goodlander (D)

52.93 — 46.97 · 2024 general election

def. Lily Tang Williams (R). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above

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Democratic nominee determined Sep 8, 2026.

PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC

Total receipts this cycle.