Elections Intelligence

Oregon 3rd District

DEFENDED SEAT
SAFE D
Maxine Dexter Democratic · Incumbent
KALSHI PARTY MARKETCHECKED Aug 27
DEMOCRAT 99.8¢5.6¢
View market on Kalshi ↗
Loran Ayles Republican · Challenger
FTP RACE SIGNAL

The market prices this seat about where its history left it — a 42-point Democratic hold in 2024, priced at 99.8¢ today.

Safe D
SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R
Market · Safe DD 99.8¢ — traders' price for a Democratic hold. Prior result · Safe DD+42.49 in 2024.
Signal clarityMediumas of 2026-08-27
MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above
D 99.8¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

View market on Kalshi ↗
POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

No qualifying general-election poll has been retrieved for this race.

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above
D+42.49

Maxine E. Dexter (D)

67.71 — 25.22 · 2024 general election

def. Joanna Harbour (R). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above
Maxine Dexter$1.04M

PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC

Total receipts this cycle.

BALLOT & DATES Primary 05-19 · HELDGeneral Nov 3, 2026 D settled · R settled COMPARE THE CANDIDATES ⇄