Jackie Mary Auringer · Elections Intelligence

What the Signal reads

Likely D

Auringer is the Republican challenger for a seat the Signal rates Likely D. The market has Auringer at 5.9¢ against Ryan's 96.5¢, down 2.1¢ since August 3. The polling average has Ryan ahead by 15.3 points, and Ryan leads 52.6 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗

Auringer · Republican contract

5.9¢

▼ 2.1¢since August 3

This contract settles on whether a Republican holds the seat, not on Jackie Mary Auringer by name.

Aug 342 daily readings · high 10¢ · low 4.1¢Oct 12

Jackie Mary AuringerRepublican

5.9¢

Patrick RyanDemocratic · incumbent

96.5¢

17,410 traded · 4,056 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Auringer v Ryan

Metric by metric

Auringer

Ryan

5.9¢

MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET

96.5¢

$89.7K

RaisedFEC, through June 30

$4.72M

$61.3K

Cash on handFEC, through June 30

$3.12M

39%

Latest pollGSG, Ryan sponsor · Jul 26

53%

No office on file

Holds now

U.S. Representativesince 2022

The 2026 race

New York 18th District

Polling average

D+15.3

Average of 2 pollsters, October 30 to July 26.

Prior result

D+14.3

2024 general election, won by Patrick Ryan.

Fundraising

52.6 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026, through June 30.