Michael Baumgartner
WA-5What the Signal reads
Likely R
Baumgartner is the Republican incumbent, defending a seat the Signal rates Likely R. The market has Baumgartner at 85¢ against Conroy's 16¢, up 2¢ since August 3. The polling average has Baumgartner ahead by 6 points, and Baumgartner leads 4.3 to 1 in money raised.
The market
Baumgartner · Republican contract
85.0¢
▲ 2.0¢since August 3
This contract settles on whether a Republican holds the seat, not on Michael Baumgartner by name.
84,055 traded · 70,665 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET
Baumgartner v Conroy
Metric by metricThe 2026 race
Washington 5th DistrictLatest poll
R+6
Tavern Research, May 25.
Prior result
R+21.3
2024 general election, won by Michael Baumgartner.
Fundraising
4.3 to 1
Raised 2025 to 2026, through July 15.