Ohio 1st District

DEFENDED SEATLean DREDISTRICTEDWhy the lines changedOhio had to redraw its map before 2026. The bipartisan Ohio Redistricting Commission voted unanimously for a new plan on Oct. 31, 2025, and it stays in place until the next census. It adds Clinton County and changes which part of Hamilton County it includes. The new lines flip the district, going from Harris +6.3 to Trump +2.6 in the 2024 presidential vote.Source ↗

Greg Landsman (D) has held this seat since 2023 and is running for re-election; the district was redrawn in October 2025.

PresidentialD+6.3→R+2.6Same ballots, new mapThis district’s 2024 presidential vote, counted on the old lines (D+6.3) and the new (R+2.6). Same ballots, new map.

FTP Race Signal

FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.

This district was redrawn in October 2025; the 2024 result on the previous lines does not describe it. The market prices the new seat at 87¢ Democratic.

Lean D

Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R

Market · Likely DD 87¢: traders' price for a Democratic hold.Prior result · Lean DD+9.17 in 2024.Polling · Toss-upD+3.3 (Quantus, Aug 24).

Market and polls both favor Landsman.

As of October 12.

Market

BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above

D 87¢

Kalshi party market · checked 2:09 PM ET

View market on Kalshi ↗

Polling

BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 10Likely10 to 20Safe20 and above

D+3.3

Quantus ↗ B- Aug 21 to 24 · n=509 LV D+3.3 Independent

The latest poll on file.

Prior result

BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 12Likely12 to 25Safe25 and above

D+9.2

Greg Landsman (D)

54.6% to 45.4% · 2024 general election · previous district linesPrevious district linesOhio had to redraw its map before 2026. The bipartisan Ohio Redistricting Commission voted unanimously for a new plan on Oct. 31, 2025, and it stays in place until the next census. It adds Clinton County and changes which part of Hamilton County it includes. The new lines flip the district, going from Harris +6.3 to Trump +2.6 in the 2024 presidential vote.Source ↗

def. Orlando Sonza (R). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

Fundraising

BandRATIO TO 1Parity1 to 5Lean5 and above

3 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026 · thru Jun 30

Greg Landsman$4.63M ↗$3.61M cash

Eric Conroy$1.51M ↗$474.2K cash

Total receipts in the 2025 to 2026 two-year cycle, through June 30, 2026; Landsman leads 3 to 1, short of the 5 to 1 at which fundraising takes a place on the spectrum.