Ohio 1st District
DEFENDED SEAT
Also on the ballot: John D. Hancock (L).
FTP RACE SIGNAL
The market has run well past this seat's history — a 9-point Democratic hold in 2024, priced at 87¢ today.
Lean D
SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R
Market · Likely DD 87¢ — traders' price for a Democratic hold.Prior result · Lean DD+9.17 in 2024.Polling · Toss-upD+3.3 — Quantus, Aug 26.
Signal clarityMediumas of 2026-08-27
The market moved 7¢ toward the Republican in the last 7 days.
MARKET
BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above
D 87¢
Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27
View market on Kalshi ↗
POLLING
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above
D+3.3
Quantus ↗ B-
Aug 21 - 24 · n=509 LV
D+3.3
INDEPENDENT
PRIOR RESULT
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above
D+9.17
Greg Landsman (D)
54.58 — 45.42 · 2024 general election
def. Orlando Sonza (R). Margin verified against retrieved official results.
FUNDRAISING
BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above
3.1 to 1
Greg Landsman$4.63M
Eric Conroy$1.51M
PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 03-31 · FEC
Total receipts this cycle. Parity — neither campaign leads by enough for fundraising to take a place on the spectrum.