Florida 16th District
OPEN SEAT
Also on the ballot: Mark Davis (I).
FTP RACE SIGNAL
The market prices this seat about where its history left it — a 19-point Republican hold in 2024, priced at 85¢ today.
Likely R
SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R
Market · Likely RR 85¢ — traders' price for a Republican hold.Prior result · Likely RR+18.96 in 2024.
Signal clarityMediumas of 2026-08-27
MARKET
BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above
R 85¢
Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27
View market on Kalshi ↗
POLLING
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above
—
No qualifying general-election poll has been retrieved for this race.
PRIOR RESULT
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above
R+18.96
Vern Buchanan (R)
59.48 — 40.52 · 2024 general election
def. Jan Schneider (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.
FUNDRAISING
BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above
3.7 to 1
Kelly Kirschner$296.5K
Sydney Gruters$1.09M
PULLED 08-24 · PERIOD 07-29 · FEC
Total receipts this cycle. Parity — neither campaign leads by enough for fundraising to take a place on the spectrum.