OPEN SEATLean RREDISTRICTEDWhy the lines changedFlorida redrew its congressional map in a 2026 special session. Gov. Ron DeSantis signed the new plan (HB 1-D) on May 4, 2026; it changed 21 of the state's 28 districts. Its partisan lean barely changes (Trump +15.5 to Trump +13.7 in the 2024 presidential vote).Source ↗
Vern Buchanan (R) has held this seat since 2013 and is not running; the district was redrawn in May 2026.
PresidentialR+15.5→R+13.7Same ballots, new mapThis district’s 2024 presidential vote, counted on the old lines (R+15.5) and the new (R+13.7). Same ballots, new map.
FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
This district was redrawn in May 2026; the 2024 result on the previous lines does not describe it. The market prices the new seat at 84¢ Republican.
Lean R
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Polling · Toss-upR+3 (average of 2 pollsters, Oct 2).Market · Likely RR 84¢: traders' price for a Republican hold.Prior result · Likely RR+18.96 in 2024.PollsR+3MarketR 84¢2024 resultR+19.0
MarketR 84¢PollsR+32024R+19.0
Market and polls both favor Gruters.
Polling moved 5 points toward the Republican over 34 days.As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above
SEA Polling ↗B+Aug 25 to 29 · n=400 LVD+1D sponsorD+1 · D sponsor · counts as R+1 at half weight
Average of the latest poll from each of the 2 most recent pollsters; fewer than three polled in the last 30 days. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half.
Prior result
BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 12Likely12 to 25Safe25 and above
R+19.0
Vern Buchanan (R)
59.5% to 40.5% · 2024 general election · previous district linesPrevious district linesFlorida redrew its congressional map in a 2026 special session. Gov. Ron DeSantis signed the new plan (HB 1-D) on May 4, 2026; it changed 21 of the state's 28 districts. Its partisan lean barely changes (Trump +15.5 to Trump +13.7 in the 2024 presidential vote).Source ↗
def. Jan Schneider (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.
Total receipts in the 2025 to 2026 two-year cycle, through July 29, 2026; Gruters leads 3.6 to 1, short of the 5 to 1 at which fundraising takes a place on the spectrum.
The general election is on November 3, which is 22 days away.