John J. McGuire III · Elections Intelligence

What the Signal reads

Lean R

McGuire is the Republican incumbent, defending a seat the Signal rates Lean R. The market has McGuire at 77¢ against Perriello's 24¢, down 12¢ since August 3. The polling average has McGuire ahead by 3.5 points, and Perriello leads 1.2 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗

McGuire · Republican contract

77.0¢

▼ 12.0¢since August 3

This contract settles on whether a Republican holds the seat, not on John J. McGuire III by name.

Aug 342 daily readings · high 89¢ · low 77¢Oct 12

John J. McGuire IIIRepublican · incumbent

77.0¢

Tom PerrielloDemocratic

24.0¢

167,247 traded · 124,252 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

McGuire v Perriello

Metric by metric

McGuire

Perriello

77.0¢

MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET

24.0¢

$1.74M

RaisedFEC, through July 15

$2.14M

$524.3K

Cash on handFEC, through July 15

$1.51M

51%

Latest pollWash. Post/Schar · Sep 28

45%

U.S. Representativesince 2025

Holds now

No office on file

The 2026 race

Virginia 5th District

Polling average

R+3.5

Average of 2 pollsters, September 24 to September 28.

Prior result

R+15.0

2024 general election, won by John J. McGuire III.

Fundraising

1.2 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026, through July 15.