Oklahoma 2nd District
DEFENDED SEAT
Also on the ballot: Ronnie Hopkins (I).
FTP RACE SIGNAL
The market prices this seat about where its history left it — a 53-point Republican hold in 2024, priced at 98¢ today.
Safe R
SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R
Fundraising · Lean RR 51.02-to-1 in receipts.Market · Safe RR 98¢ — traders' price for a Republican hold.Prior result · Safe RR+52.73 in 2024.
Signal clarityMediumas of 2026-08-27
The market moved 2¢ toward the Republican in the last 7 days.
MARKET
BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above
R 98¢
Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27
View market on Kalshi ↗
POLLING
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above
—
No qualifying general-election poll has been retrieved for this race.
PRIOR RESULT
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above
R+52.73
Josh Brecheen (R)
74.18 — 21.44 · 2024 general election
def. Brandon Wade (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.
FUNDRAISING
BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above
R 51.02 to 1
Brandon Wade$4.3K
Josh Brecheen$218.9K
PULLED 08-25 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC
Total receipts this cycle.