Louisiana U.S. Senate — Elections Intelligence

FTP RACE SIGNAL

The market is less sure of this seat than its history is — a 40-point Republican hold in 2020, priced at 94.5¢ today.

Lean R

SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R

Polling · Toss-upR+4 — PPP, Aug 15.Market · Likely RR 94.5¢ — traders' price for a Republican hold.Prior result · Safe RR+40.3 in 2020.

Signal clarityMediumas of 2026-08-27

The market moved 2¢ toward the Republican in the last 7 days.

MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above

R 94.5¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

R+4

PPP ↗ B Jul 21 - 22 · n=518 RV R+4 D SPONSOR

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above

R+40.3

Bill Cassidy (R)

59.32 — 19.02 · 2020 general election

def. Adrian Perkins (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above

3.1 to 1

Jamie Davis$1.98M

Julia Letlow$6.21M

PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC

Total receipts this cycle. Parity — neither campaign leads by enough for fundraising to take a place on the spectrum.