FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
The market is less sure of this seat than its history is: a 40-point Republican hold in 2020, priced at 94.1¢ today.
Likely R
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Polling · Lean RR+6 (average of 2 pollsters, Sep 19).Market · Likely RR 94.1¢: traders' price for a Republican hold.Prior result · Safe RR+40.3 in 2020.PollsR+6MarketR 94.1¢2020 resultR+40.3
MarketR 94.1¢PollsR+62020R+40.3
Market and polls both favor Letlow.
The market moved 2¢ toward the Democrat in the last 7 days.As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above
BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 10Likely10 to 20Safe20 and above
R+6
Hart Research ↗A-Sep 17 to 19 · n=500 LVR+4D sponsorR+4 · D sponsor · counts as R+6 at half weight
PPP ↗BJul 21 to 22 · n=518 RVR+4Davis sponsorR+4 · Davis sponsor · counts as R+6 at half weight
Average of the latest poll from each of the 2 most recent pollsters; fewer than three polled in the last 30 days. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half.
Prior result
BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 12Likely12 to 25Safe25 and above
R+40.3
Bill Cassidy (R)
59.3% to 19.0% · 2020 general election
def. Adrian Perkins (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.
Total receipts in the 2025 to 2026 two-year cycle, through June 30, 2026; Letlow leads 3.1 to 1, short of the 5 to 1 at which fundraising takes a place on the spectrum.
The general election is on November 3, which is 22 days away.