Katy Padilla Stout
TX-23What the Signal reads
Lean R
Stout is the Democratic nominee for an open seat the Signal rates Lean R. The market has Stout at 36¢ against Herrera's 66¢, up 8¢ since August 3. The polling average has Herrera ahead by 5.3 points, and Herrera leads 3.9 to 1 in money raised.
The market
Stout · Democratic contract
36.0¢
▲ 8.0¢since August 3
This contract settles on whether a Democrat holds the seat, not on Katy Padilla Stout by name.
189,853 traded · 141,813 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET
Stout v Herrera
Metric by metricThe 2026 race
Texas 23rd DistrictPolling average
R+5.3
Average of 2 pollsters, March 11 to July 28.
Prior result
R+24.6
2024 general election · previous district lines, won by Tony Gonzales.
Fundraising
3.9 to 1
Raised 2025 to 2026, through June 30.