Elections Intelligence

New York 9th District

DEFENDED SEAT
SAFE D
THE NOVEMBER FIELD
Democratic — SETTLED
Yvette D. Clarke Democratic · Nominee
FTP RACE SIGNAL

The market prices this seat about where its history left it — a 48-point Democratic hold in 2024, priced at 98¢ today.

Safe D
SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R
Prior result · Safe DD+47.99 in 2024. Market · Safe DD 98¢ — traders' price for a Democratic hold.
Signal clarityMediumas of 2026-08-27
MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above
D 98¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

View market on Kalshi ↗
POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

No qualifying general-election poll has been retrieved for this race.

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above
D+47.99

Yvette D. Clarke (D)

73.46 — 25.48 · 2024 general election

def. Menachem M. Raitport (R). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above
Yvette D. Clarke$1.01M

PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC

Total receipts this cycle.

BALLOT & DATES Primary 06-23 · HELDGeneral Nov 3, 2026 D settled