Bryan Steil · Elections Intelligence

What the Signal reads

Lean R

Steil is the Republican incumbent, defending a seat the Signal rates Lean R. The market has Steil at 64¢ against Berman's 36¢, down 7¢ since August 3. The polling average has Steil ahead by 3.3 points, and Steil leads 7.6 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗

Steil · Republican contract

64.0¢

▼ 7.0¢since August 3

This contract settles on whether a Republican holds the seat, not on Bryan Steil by name.

Aug 342 daily readings · high 72¢ · low 64¢Oct 12

Bryan SteilRepublican · incumbent

64.0¢

Mitchell BermanDemocratic

36.0¢

75,606 traded · 67,136 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Steil v Berman

Metric by metric

Steil

Berman

64.0¢

MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET

36.0¢

$5.47M

RaisedFEC, through July 22

$713.0K

$6.33M

Cash on handFEC, through July 22

$151.6K

47%

Latest pollImpact Research, House Majority PAC sponsor · Oct 1

48%

U.S. Representativesince 2019

Holds now

No office on file

The 2026 race

Wisconsin 1st District

Polling average

R+3.3

Average of 3 pollsters, March 16 to October 1.

Prior result

R+10.2

2024 general election, won by Bryan Steil.

Fundraising

7.6 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026, through July 22.