Texas 22nd District
DEFENDED SEAT
Also on the ballot: Demile James (other) and Troy E. Nehls (R).
FTP RACE SIGNAL
The market prices this seat about where its history left it — a 24-point Republican hold in 2024, priced at 93.3¢ today.
Likely R
SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R
Fundraising · Lean RR 7.99-to-1 in receipts.Market · Likely RR 93.3¢ — traders' price for a Republican hold.Prior result · Likely RR+24.25 in 2024.
Signal clarityHighas of 2026-08-27
MARKET
BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above
R 93.3¢
Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27
View market on Kalshi ↗
POLLING
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above
—
No qualifying general-election poll has been retrieved for this race.
PRIOR RESULT
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above
R+24.25
Troy E. Nehls (R)
62.12 — 37.88 · 2024 general election
def. Marquette Greene-Scott (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.
FUNDRAISING
BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above
R 7.99 to 1
Marquette Greene-Scott$53.8K
Trever Nehls$429.5K
PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC
Total receipts this cycle.