A candidate outside the two major parties is priced in this market, so the two party sides do not exhaust the outcomes. The FTP Race Signal reads the seat; the Kalshi figure is Kiley's own contract.
Likely D
Kevin Kiley is a sitting U.S. Representative for California's 3rd district, running in California's 6th district, a seat the band rates Likely D. California's 3rd, which they hold, was redrawn 14.0 points toward the Democrats; the market prices their contract at 6.4¢ against Pan's 96.4¢, up 0.4¢ across 25 observation days; the one public poll has them 4 points behind; and they have raised 2.7 dollars for every one of Pan's.
6.4¢
▲ 0.4¢
since Aug 3
DEPTH ON THIS BOOK 43,015 traded · 12,669 open
Sides may not sum to 100. Prices are the yes ask. checked 1:29 AM ET
6.4¢
96.4¢
$2.99M
2.7:1 against Richard Pan
$1.10M
U.S. Representative
California's 3rd district · since 2025 · a different seat from the one they are running in
Holds no office
Challenger
35%
4 points behind
One public poll, and it is the only one
39%
THEIR SEAT WAS REDRAWN R+3.8 → D+10.2
The Legislature enacted the congressional map in AB 604, chaptered 21 August 2025 as Chapter 96, Statutes of 2025, and voters authorized its use through ACA 8, Proposition 50, on 4 November 2025; it applies to the 2026, 2028 and 2030 congressional elections.