Ashley Moody
FLWhat the Signal reads
Likely R
Moody is the Republican appointed incumbent, defending a seat the Signal rates Likely R. The market has Moody at 91.2¢ against Nixon's 9.3¢, up 5.2¢ since July 31. The polling average has Moody ahead by 7.2 points, and Moody leads 11.5 to 1 in money raised.
The market
Moody · Republican contract
91.2¢
▲ 5.2¢since July 31
This contract settles on whether a Republican holds the seat, not on Ashley Moody by name.
1,341,082 traded · 1,061,867 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET
Moody v Nixon
Metric by metricThe 2026 race
Florida U.S. Senate (Special)Polling average
R+7.2
Average of 7 pollsters, September 21 to October 7.
Prior result
R+16.4
2022 general election, won by Marco Rubio.
Fundraising
11.5 to 1
Raised 2025 to 2026, through July 29.