FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
The market has run well past this seat's history: a 1-point Democratic gain in 2021, priced at 95.4¢ today.
Likely D
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Market · Safe DD 95.4¢: traders' price for a Democratic hold.Polling · Lean DD+8.5 (average of 6 pollsters, Oct 9).Fundraising · Lean DD 10.43-to-1 in receipts.Prior result · Toss-upD+1.23 in 2021.MarketD 95.4¢PollsD+8.5FundraisingD 10.43 to 12021 resultD+1.2
MarketD 95.4¢PollsD+8.52021D+1.2FundraisingD 10.43 to 1
Market and polls both favor Ossoff.
As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above