FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
The market prices this seat about where its history left it: a 35-point Republican hold in 2024, priced at 97.4¢ today.
Likely R
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Polling · Toss-upEVEN (Miller Consulting (adjusted), Sep 11).Fundraising · Lean RR 31.44-to-1 in receipts.Market · Safe RR 97.4¢: traders' price for a Republican hold.Prior result · Safe RR+34.62 in 2024.PollsEVENFundraisingR 31.44 to 1MarketR 97.4¢2024 resultR+34.6
MarketR 97.4¢PollsEVEN2024R+34.6FundraisingR 31.44 to 1
Market favors Cowan, but polls are even.
As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above