Washington 3rd District — Elections Intelligence

FTP RACE SIGNAL

The market has run well past this seat's history — a 4-point Democratic hold in 2024, priced at 90.4¢ today.

Lean D

SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R

Market · Likely DD 90.4¢ — traders' price for a Democratic hold.Prior result · Toss-upD+3.88 in 2024.Polling · Toss-upR+1 — Emerson College, Jul 14.

Signal clarityMediumas of 2026-08-27

MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above

D 90.4¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

R+1

Emerson College ↗ A+ Jul 8 - 10 · n=500 LV R+1 INDEPENDENT

NRCC Co/efficient ↗ B Apr 26 - 28 · n=800 RV R+7 R SPONSOR

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above

D+3.88

Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D)

51.74 — 47.86 · 2024 general election

def. Joe Kent (R). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above

3.1 to 1

Marie Gluesenkamp Perez$6.29M

John Braun$2.04M

PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 07-15 · FEC

Total receipts this cycle. Parity — neither campaign leads by enough for fundraising to take a place on the spectrum.