FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
The market has run well past this seat's history: a 4-point Democratic hold in 2024, priced at 91.1¢ today.
Lean D
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Market · Likely DD 91.1¢: traders' price for a Democratic hold.Prior result · Toss-upD+3.88 in 2024.Polling · Toss-upR+1.8 (average of 3 pollsters, Sep 27).MarketD 91.1¢2024 resultD+3.9PollsR+1.8
MarketD 91.1¢PollsR+1.82024D+3.9
Market favors Perez, but polls favor Braun.
The market moved 2¢ toward the Democrat in the last 7 days.As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above
Emerson College ↗A+Jul 8 to 10 · n=500 LVR+1Northwest Progressive Institute sponsor
NRCC Co/efficient ↗BApr 25 to 29 · n=982 RVR+7NRCC sponsorR+7 · NRCC sponsor · counts as R+5 at half weight
Average of the latest poll from each of the 3 most recent pollsters; fewer than three polled in the last 30 days. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half.
Prior result
BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 12Likely12 to 25Safe25 and above
D+3.9
Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D)
51.7% to 47.9% · 2024 general election
def. Joe Kent (R). Margin verified against retrieved official results.
Total receipts in the 2025 to 2026 two-year cycle, through July 15, 2026; Perez leads 3.1 to 1, short of the 5 to 1 at which fundraising takes a place on the spectrum.
The general election is on November 3, which is 22 days away.