Matthew Dunlap

ME-2

CHALLENGER Toss-up to Lean R Competitive underdog

What the Signal reads

Lean R

Dunlap is the Democratic nominee for an open seat the Signal rates Lean R. The market has Dunlap at 35¢ against LePage's 68¢, down 4¢ since July 31. The polling average has Dunlap ahead by 2.8 points, and LePage leads 2.1 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗

Dunlap · Democratic contract

35.0¢

▼ 4.0¢since July 31

This contract settles on whether a Democrat holds the seat, not on Matthew Dunlap by name.

Jul 3148 daily readings · high 49¢ · low 33¢Oct 12

Matthew DunlapDemocratic

35.0¢

Paul LePageRepublican

68.0¢

133,552 traded · 95,012 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Dunlap v LePage

Metric by metric

Dunlap

LePage

35.0¢

MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET

68.0¢

$1.21M

RaisedFEC, through June 30

$2.55M

$228.6K

Cash on handFEC, through June 30

$1.69M

50%

Latest pollTulchin Research, D-leaning firm · Sep 30

48%

No office on file

Holds now

No office on file

The 2026 race

Maine 2nd District

Polling average

D+2.8

Average of 3 pollsters, September 12 to September 30.

Prior result

D+0.7

2024 general election, won by Jared Golden.

Fundraising

2.1 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026, through June 30.