Tennessee Governor — Elections Intelligence

Also on the ballot: Misam Abidi (I), Dean Brewer (I), Ray Brown (I), David Hatley (I), Wendell Jackson (I), Charles Van Morgan (I), Eddie Lee Murphy (I), Lauren Pinkston (I), Victor L. Scoggin (I), Dave Seeman (I), Karl Knox Smithson (I), L. Webb Taylor (I) and Robert C. Vick (I).

FTP RACE SIGNAL

The market and the latest general-election poll carry this seat — Tennessee has no verified prior result on file.

Safe R

SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R

Polling · Safe RR+24 — Targoz, May 8.Market · Safe RR 98¢ — traders' price for a Republican hold.

Signal clarityHighas of 2026-08-27

MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above

R 98¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

View market on Kalshi ↗

POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

R+24

Targoz ↗ C+ Apr 20 - 27, 26 · n=1,157 RV R+24 INDEPENDENT

Targoz Market Research ↗ April 20–27, 2026 · n=1,200 RV R+24 INDEPENDENT

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above

—

No verified prior result

The last general election in this seat has not been imported from an official state canvass, so the signal has no baseline.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above

8.3 to 1

Jerri Green$146.8K

Marsha Blackburn$1.23M

PULLED 08-19 · PERIOD 07-27 · STATE FILING

Total receipts this cycle.