FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
The market is less sure of this seat than its history is: a 32-point Republican hold in 2022, priced at 94.6¢ today.
Safe R
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Polling · Likely RR+11 (average of 2 pollsters, Sep 12).Market · Likely RR 94.6¢: traders' price for a Republican hold.Prior result · Safe RR+31.99 in 2022.PollsR+11MarketR 94.6¢2022 resultR+32.0
MarketR 94.6¢PollsR+112022R+32.0
Market and polls both favor Blackburn.
Polling moved 4 points toward the Democrat over 17 days.As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above