Derek Tran
CA-45What the Signal reads
Tran is the Democratic incumbent, defending a seat the Signal rates Likely D. The market has Tran at 92.7¢ against Vo's 9.3¢, up 3.7¢ since July 31. Tran leads 10 to 1 in money raised.
The market
This contract settles on whether a Democrat holds the seat, not on Derek Tran by name.
101,560 traded · 75,261 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET
Tran v Vo
Metric by metricThe 2026 race
California 45th District2024 general election · previous district lines, won by Derek Tran.
Raised 2025 to 2026, through June 30.
THEIR SEAT WAS REDRAWND+1.5 → D+3.9
California voters approved Proposition 50 in November 2025, which replaced the commission-drawn map with one drawn by the Legislature for the 2026, 2028 and 2030 elections. Communities are shuffled within this district, which spans Orange and Los Angeles counties. Its partisan lean barely changes (Harris +1.5 to Harris +3.9 in the 2024 presidential vote).