DEFENDED SEATSafe RREDISTRICTEDWhy the lines changedTexas redrew its congressional map in the middle of the decade through HB 4, which Gov. Greg Abbott signed on Aug. 29, 2025. A federal court blocked the map, but the U.S. Supreme Court put that ruling on hold in December 2025 and reversed it in April 2026, so the new lines are in place for 2026. It becomes somewhat less Republican, going from Trump +32.6 to Trump +24.7 in the 2024 presidential vote.Source ↗
Pat Fallon (R) has held this seat since 2021 and is running for re-election; the district was redrawn in September 2025.
PresidentialR+32.6→R+24.7Same ballots, new mapThis district’s 2024 presidential vote, counted on the old lines (R+32.6) and the new (R+24.7). Same ballots, new map.
FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
This district was redrawn in September 2025; the 2024 result on the previous lines does not describe it. The market prices the new seat at 97.3¢ Republican.
Safe R
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Fundraising · Lean RR 48.58-to-1 in receipts.Market · Safe RR 97.3¢: traders' price for a Republican hold.Prior result · Safe RR+36.77 in 2024.FundraisingR 48.58 to 1MarketR 97.3¢2024 resultR+36.8
MarketR 97.3¢2024R+36.8FundraisingR 48.58 to 1
No public polls. The market favors Fallon.
As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above
BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 10Likely10 to 20Safe20 and above
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Prior result
BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 12Likely12 to 25Safe25 and above
R+36.8
Pat Fallon (R)
68.4% to 31.6% · 2024 general election · previous district linesPrevious district linesTexas redrew its congressional map in the middle of the decade through HB 4, which Gov. Greg Abbott signed on Aug. 29, 2025. A federal court blocked the map, but the U.S. Supreme Court put that ruling on hold in December 2025 and reversed it in April 2026, so the new lines are in place for 2026. It becomes somewhat less Republican, going from Trump +32.6 to Trump +24.7 in the 2024 presidential vote.Source ↗
def. Simon Cardell (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.