Brian K. Fitzpatrick · Elections Intelligence

What the Signal reads

Toss-up

Fitzpatrick is the Republican incumbent, defending a seat the Signal rates Toss-up. The market has Fitzpatrick at 64¢ against Harvie's 37¢, up 8¢ since August 3. The polling average has Fitzpatrick ahead by 2.5 points, and Fitzpatrick leads 3.3 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗

Fitzpatrick · Republican contract

64.0¢

▲ 8.0¢since August 3

This contract settles on whether a Republican holds the seat, not on Brian K. Fitzpatrick by name.

Aug 342 daily readings · high 66¢ · low 53¢Oct 12

Brian K. FitzpatrickRepublican · incumbent

64.0¢

Bob HarvieDemocratic

37.0¢

224,054 traded · 202,708 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Fitzpatrick v Harvie

Metric by metric

Fitzpatrick

Harvie

64.0¢

MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET

37.0¢

$6.73M

RaisedFEC, through June 30

$2.01M

$6.36M

Cash on handFEC, through June 30

$794.9K

46%

Latest pollGSG, D-leaning firm · Oct 8

46%

U.S. Representativesince 2017

Holds now

No office on file

The 2026 race

Pennsylvania 1st District

Polling average

R+2.5

Average of 3 pollsters, August 23 to October 8.

Prior result

R+12.8

2024 general election, won by Brian K. Fitzpatrick.

Fundraising

3.3 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026, through June 30.