New York 22nd District — Elections Intelligence

FTP RACE SIGNAL

The market has run well past this seat's history — a 9-point Democratic hold in 2024, priced at 93.8¢ today.

Likely D

SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R

Market · Likely DD 93.8¢ — traders' price for a Democratic hold.Prior result · Lean DD+9.11 in 2024.Fundraising · Lean DD 10.08-to-1 in receipts.

Signal clarityHighas of 2026-08-27

The market moved 2¢ toward the Republican in the last 7 days.

MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above

D 93.8¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

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No qualifying general-election poll has been retrieved for this race.

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above

D+9.11

John W. Mannion (D)

54.5 — 45.39 · 2024 general election

def. Brandon Williams (R). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above

D 10.08 to 1

John W. Mannion$2.69M

Kailee Marie Buller$267.3K

PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC

Total receipts this cycle.