West Virginia U.S. Senate — Elections Intelligence

FTP RACE SIGNAL

The market prices this seat about where its history left it — a 43-point Republican hold in 2020, priced at 98.8¢ today.

Safe R

SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R

Fundraising · Lean RR 206.01-to-1 in receipts.Market · Safe RR 98.8¢ — traders' price for a Republican hold.Prior result · Safe RR+43.28 in 2020.

Signal clarityMediumas of 2026-08-27

MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above

R 98.8¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

—

No qualifying general-election poll has been retrieved for this race.

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above

R+43.28

Capito, Shelley Moore (R)

70.28 — 27 · 2020 general election

def. Swearengin, Paula Jean (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above

R 206.01 to 1

Rachel Fetty Anderson$22.4K

Shelley Moore Capito$4.62M

PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 04-22 · FEC

Total receipts this cycle.