DEFENDED SEATSafe DREDISTRICTEDWhy the lines changedCalifornia voters approved Proposition 50 in November 2025, which replaced the commission-drawn map with one drawn by the Legislature for the 2026, 2028 and 2030 elections. Communities on both sides of the San Diego–Orange County line are shuffled. It becomes somewhat more Democratic, going from Harris +7.8 to Harris +12.1 in the 2024 presidential vote.Source ↗
Mike Levin (D) has held this seat since 2019 and is running for re-election; the district was redrawn in August 2025.
PresidentialD+7.8→D+12.1Same ballots, new mapThis district’s 2024 presidential vote, counted on the old lines (D+7.8) and the new (D+12.1). Same ballots, new map.
FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
This district was redrawn in August 2025; the 2024 result on the previous lines does not describe it. The market prices the new seat at 97.7¢ Democratic.
Safe D
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Market · Safe DD 97.7¢: traders' price for a Democratic hold.Fundraising · Lean DD 53.82-to-1 in receipts.Prior result · Toss-upD+4.35 in 2024.MarketD 97.7¢FundraisingD 53.82 to 12024 resultD+4.3
MarketD 97.7¢2024D+4.3FundraisingD 53.82 to 1
No public polls. The market favors Levin.
As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above
BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 10Likely10 to 20Safe20 and above
—
Prior result
BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 12Likely12 to 25Safe25 and above
D+4.3
Mike Levin (D)
52.2% to 47.8% · 2024 general election · previous district linesPrevious district linesCalifornia voters approved Proposition 50 in November 2025, which replaced the commission-drawn map with one drawn by the Legislature for the 2026, 2028 and 2030 elections. Communities on both sides of the San Diego–Orange County line are shuffled. It becomes somewhat more Democratic, going from Harris +7.8 to Harris +12.1 in the 2024 presidential vote.Source ↗
def. Matt Gunderson (R). Margin verified against retrieved official results.