California 49th District — Elections Intelligence

FTP RACE SIGNAL

The market has run well past this seat's history — a 4-point Democratic hold in 2024, priced at 96¢ today.

Likely D

SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R

Market · Safe DD 96¢ — traders' price for a Democratic hold.Fundraising · Lean DD 53.82-to-1 in receipts.Prior result · Toss-upD+4.35 in 2024.Polling · Toss-upD+2 — Lake Research, Jul 27.

Signal clarityLow — market and prior disagreeas of 2026-08-27

The market moved 3¢ toward the Republican in the last 7 days.

MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above

D 96¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

View market on Kalshi ↗

POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

D+2

Lake Research ↗ B+ Jul 9 - 14 · n=500 LV D+2 D SPONSOR

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above

D+4.35

Mike Levin (D)

52.17 — 47.83 · 2024 general election

def. Matt Gunderson (R). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above

D 53.82 to 1

Mike Levin$3.16M

Armen Kurdian$58.8K

PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC

Total receipts this cycle.