Jonathan Nez
AZ-2What the Signal reads
Lean R
Nez is the Democratic challenger for a seat the Signal rates Lean R. The market has Nez at 32¢ against Crane's 70¢, up 2¢ since July 31. The polling average has Crane ahead by 8.7 points, and Crane leads 2.6 to 1 in money raised.
The market
Nez · Democratic contract
32.0¢
▲ 2.0¢since July 31
This contract settles on whether a Democrat holds the seat, not on Jonathan Nez by name.
51,224 traded · 36,810 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET
Nez v Crane
Metric by metricThe 2026 race
Arizona 2nd DistrictPolling average
R+8.7
Average of 2 pollsters, August 20 to August 24.
Prior result
R+9.0
2024 general election, won by Elijah Crane.
Fundraising
2.6 to 1
Raised 2025 to 2026, through July 1.