North Carolina 4th District
DEFENDED SEAT
Also on the ballot: Guy Meilleur (L).
FTP RACE SIGNAL
The market prices this seat about where its history left it — a 46-point Democratic hold in 2024, priced at 99.9¢ today.
Safe D
SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R
Prior result · Safe DD+45.71 in 2024.Market · Safe DD 99.9¢ — traders' price for a Democratic hold.Fundraising · Lean DD 76.53-to-1 in receipts.
Signal clarityMediumas of 2026-08-27
MARKET
BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above
D 99.9¢
Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27
View market on Kalshi ↗
POLLING
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above
—
No qualifying general-election poll has been retrieved for this race.
PRIOR RESULT
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above
D+45.71
Valerie P. Foushee (D)
71.85 — 26.14 · 2024 general election
def. Eric Blankenburg (R). Margin verified against retrieved official results.
FUNDRAISING
BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above
D 76.53 to 1
Valerie P. Foushee$912.0K
Mahesh (Max) Ganorkar$11.9K
PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC
Total receipts this cycle.