Elections Intelligence

California 7th District

DEFENDED SEAT
SAFE D
Doris O. Matsui Democratic · Incumbent
KALSHI PERSON MARKETCHECKED Aug 27
MATSUI 55¢VANG 51¢
View market on Kalshi ↗
Mai Vang Democratic · Challenger
FTP RACE SIGNAL

Nothing live is reporting on this seat. Its last general election was a 34-point Democratic hold in 2024.

Safe D
SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R
Prior result · Safe DD+33.6 in 2024.
Signal clarityHighas of 2026-08-26
MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above

No settling contract prices this race, so there is no market reading.

POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

No qualifying general-election poll has been retrieved for this race.

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above
D+33.6

Doris Matsui (D)

66.8 — 33.2 · 2024 general election

def. Tom Silva (R). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above
2.9 to 1
Doris O. Matsui$3.19M
Mai Vang$1.09M

PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC

Total receipts this cycle.

BALLOT & DATES Top-two primary 06-02 · HELDGeneral Nov 3, 2026 Top-two field settled · both advancers on the November ballot COMPARE THE CANDIDATES ⇄