DEFENDED SEATSafe DREDISTRICTEDWhy the lines changedCalifornia voters approved Proposition 50 in November 2025, which replaced the commission-drawn map with one drawn by the Legislature for the 2026, 2028 and 2030 elections. It becomes much less Democratic, going from Harris +29.7 to Harris +12.8 in the 2024 presidential vote.Source ↗
Doris O. Matsui (D) has held this seat since 2023 and is running for re-election; the district was redrawn in August 2025.
PresidentialD+29.7→D+12.8Same ballots, new mapThis district’s 2024 presidential vote, counted on the old lines (D+29.7) and the new (D+12.8). Same ballots, new map.
Every candidate on the November ballot is a Democrat, so the seat cannot change party. The seat verdict says nothing about which candidate wins; the number beside a candidate is that candidate's own contract.
FTP Race Signal
FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
Both finalists are Democrats, so the seat stays Democratic; the market favors Matsui.
Safe D
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Prior result · Safe DD+33.6 in 2024.2024 resultD+33.6
2024D+33.6
Polls of two Democrats are not averaged. The latest, Data for Progress for WFP, Justice Democrats and Leaders We Deserve (Democratic sponsor), August 18 to 21, had Vang ahead by 4. The market favors Matsui.
As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above
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The Kalshi event on this seat prices named candidates rather than party control, so it answers who wins and not whether the seat changes hands. It gives the signal no reading; each candidate's own price is shown in the prediction market module.
Polling
BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 10Likely10 to 20Safe20 and above
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Data for Progress ↗B-Aug 18 to 21 · n=651 LVVang +4WFP, Justice Democrats and Leaders We Deserve sponsor
Prior result
BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 12Likely12 to 25Safe25 and above
D+33.6
Doris O. Matsui (D)
66.8% to 33.2% · 2024 general election · previous district linesPrevious district linesCalifornia voters approved Proposition 50 in November 2025, which replaced the commission-drawn map with one drawn by the Legislature for the 2026, 2028 and 2030 elections. It becomes much less Democratic, going from Harris +29.7 to Harris +12.8 in the 2024 presidential vote.Source ↗
def. Tom Silva (R). Margin verified against retrieved official results.