Jake Johnson
MN-1What the Signal reads
Lean R
Johnson is the Democratic challenger for a seat the Signal rates Lean R. The market has Johnson at 23¢ against Finstad's 77¢, down 1¢ since August 3. The polling average has Finstad ahead by 4.7 points, and the two campaigns have raised about the same.
The market
Johnson · Democratic contract
23.0¢
▼ 1.0¢since August 3
This contract settles on whether a Democrat holds the seat, not on Jake Johnson by name.
218,976 traded · 171,372 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET
Johnson v Finstad
Metric by metricThe 2026 race
Minnesota 1st DistrictPolling average
R+4.7
Average of 3 pollsters, February 3 to September 21.
Prior result
R+17.1
2024 general election, won by Brad Finstad.
Fundraising
1 to 1
Raised 2025 to 2026, through July 22.