DEFENDED SEATSafe RREDISTRICTEDWhy the lines changedCalifornia voters approved Proposition 50 in November 2025, which replaced the commission-drawn map with one drawn by the Legislature for the 2026, 2028 and 2030 elections. Its partisan lean barely changes (Trump +16.9 to Trump +19.4 in the 2024 presidential vote).Source ↗
Jay Obernolte (R) has held this seat since 2023 and is running for re-election; the district was redrawn in August 2025.
PresidentialR+16.9→R+19.4Same ballots, new mapThis district’s 2024 presidential vote, counted on the old lines (R+16.9) and the new (R+19.4). Same ballots, new map.
FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
This district was redrawn in August 2025; the 2024 result on the previous lines does not describe it. The market prices the new seat at 97.7¢ Republican.
Safe R
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Fundraising · Lean RR 18.31-to-1 in receipts.Prior result · Likely RR+20.2 in 2024.Market · Safe RR 97.7¢: traders' price for a Republican hold.FundraisingR 18.31 to 12024 resultR+20.2MarketR 97.7¢
MarketR 97.7¢2024R+20.2FundraisingR 18.31 to 1
No public polls. The market favors Obernolte.
As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above
BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 10Likely10 to 20Safe20 and above
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Prior result
BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 12Likely12 to 25Safe25 and above
R+20.2
Jay Obernolte (R)
60.1% to 39.9% · 2024 general election · previous district linesPrevious district linesCalifornia voters approved Proposition 50 in November 2025, which replaced the commission-drawn map with one drawn by the Legislature for the 2026, 2028 and 2030 elections. Its partisan lean barely changes (Trump +16.9 to Trump +19.4 in the 2024 presidential vote).Source ↗
def. Derek Marshall (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.