California 23rd District — Elections Intelligence

FTP RACE SIGNAL

The market has run well past this seat's history — a 20-point Republican hold in 2024, priced at 96.9¢ today.

Safe R

SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R

Fundraising · Lean RR 18.31-to-1 in receipts.Prior result · Likely RR+20.2 in 2024.Market · Safe RR 96.9¢ — traders' price for a Republican hold.

Signal clarityMediumas of 2026-08-27

The market moved 2¢ toward the Democrat in the last 7 days.

MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above

R 96.9¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

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No qualifying general-election poll has been retrieved for this race.

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above

R+20.2

Jay Obernolte (R)

60.1 — 39.9 · 2024 general election

def. Derek Marshall (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above

R 18.31 to 1

Tessa Lynn Hodge$79.5K

Jay Obernolte$1.46M

PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC

Total receipts this cycle.