DEFENDED SEATLean RREDISTRICTEDWhy the lines changedAlabama is going back to the map its legislature passed in 2023. A court-drawn map was used in 2024; on June 2, 2026, the U.S. Supreme Court paused a lower-court order blocking the 2023 map, so the state's own map is in use this cycle. The district returns to the legislature's 2023 Wiregrass-and-Montgomery version instead of the court-drawn version used in 2024. The new lines flip the district, going from Harris +8.2 to Trump +14.3 in the 2024 presidential vote.Source ↗
Shomari Figures (D) has held this seat since 2025 and is running for re-election; the district was redrawn in June 2026.
PresidentialD+8.2→R+14.3Same ballots, new mapThis district’s 2024 presidential vote, counted on the old lines (D+8.2) and the new (R+14.3). Same ballots, new map.
FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
This district was redrawn in June 2026; the 2024 result on the previous lines does not describe it. The market prices the new seat at 74¢ Republican.
Lean R
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Prior result · Lean DD+9.19 in 2024.Polling · Toss-upR+2.3 (average of 3 pollsters, Aug 31).Market · Lean RR 74¢: traders' price for a Republican win, a flip from Democratic.2024 resultD+9.2PollsR+2.3MarketR 74¢
MarketR 74¢PollsR+2.32024D+9.2
Market and polls both favor Marques.
The market moved 2¢ toward the Democrat in the last 7 days.As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above
BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 10Likely10 to 20Safe20 and above
R+2.3
Tulchin Research ↗B-Aug 24 to 31EVENHouse Majority PAC sponsorEVEN · House Majority PAC sponsor · counts as R+2 at half weight
DCCC ↗B-Jul 29 to 30 · n=421 LVEVEND sponsorEVEN · D sponsor · counts as R+2 at half weight
Impact Research ↗BJun 22 to 25 · n=400 LVR+1Sponsor unconfirmed (reported as a Democratic internal)R+1 · Sponsor unconfirmed (reported as a Democratic internal) · counts as R+3 at half weight
Average of the latest poll from each of the 3 most recent pollsters; fewer than three polled in the last 30 days. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half.
Prior result
BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 12Likely12 to 25Safe25 and above
D+9.2
Shomari Figures (D)
54.6% to 45.4% · 2024 general election · previous district linesPrevious district linesAlabama is going back to the map its legislature passed in 2023. A court-drawn map was used in 2024; on June 2, 2026, the U.S. Supreme Court paused a lower-court order blocking the 2023 map, so the state's own map is in use this cycle. The district returns to the legislature's 2023 Wiregrass-and-Montgomery version instead of the court-drawn version used in 2024. The new lines flip the district, going from Harris +8.2 to Trump +14.3 in the 2024 presidential vote.Source ↗
def. Caroleene Dobson (R). Margin verified against retrieved official results.
Total receipts in the 2025 to 2026 two-year cycle, through July 22, 2026; the two campaigns have raised about the same, so fundraising takes no place on the spectrum.
The general election is on November 3, which is 22 days away.