Alabama 2nd District — Elections Intelligence

FTP RACE SIGNAL

A seat that went Democratic by 9 points in 2024 is now priced for the Republican.

Lean R

SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R

Prior result · Lean DD+9.19 in 2024.Market · Lean RR 78¢ — traders' price for a Republican hold.

Signal clarityLow — prior and market disagreeas of 2026-08-27

MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above

R 78¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

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DCCC ↗ B- Jul 29 - 30 · n=421 LV EVEN D SPONSOR

Impact Research ↗ B Jun 22 - 25 · n=400 LV R+1 D SPONSOR

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above

D+9.19

Shomari Figures (D)

54.56 — 45.37 · 2024 general election

def. Caroleene Dobson (R). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above

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Shomari Figures$1.36M

PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 07-22 · FEC

Total receipts this cycle.