Florida 22nd District — Elections Intelligence

FTP RACE SIGNAL

A seat that went Democratic by 10 points in 2024 is now a coin flip, the Republican narrowly ahead at 62¢.

Toss-up

SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R

Prior result · Lean DD+9.92 in 2024.Market · Toss-upR 62¢ — traders' price for a Republican hold.

Signal clarityLow — no pollingas of 2026-08-27

The market moved 6¢ toward the Democrat in the last 7 days.

MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above

R 62¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

—

Tavern Research ↗ Aug 10 - 12 · n=551 LV · HYPOTHETICAL MATCHUP EVEN INDEPENDENT

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above

D+9.92

Lois Frankel (D)

54.96 — 45.04 · 2024 general election

def. Dan Franzese (R). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above

1.1 to 1

Pia Dandiya$2.28M

Casey Askar$2.57M

PULLED 08-24 · PERIOD 07-29 · FEC

Total receipts this cycle. Parity — neither campaign leads by enough for fundraising to take a place on the spectrum.