New Jersey 7th District
DEFENDED SEAT
Also on the ballot: Lana Leguía (L) and Seamus Patrick O'Toole (other).
FTP RACE SIGNAL
A seat that went Republican by 3 points in 2024 is now priced for the Democrat.
Lean D
SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R
Market · Likely DD 82¢ — traders' price for a Democratic hold.Polling · Toss-upD+4 — Z to A Research, Jun 4.Prior result · Toss-upR+3.4 in 2024.
Signal clarityMediumas of 2026-08-27
MARKET
BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above
D 82¢
Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27
View market on Kalshi ↗
POLLING
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above
D+4
PRIOR RESULT
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above
R+3.4
Thomas H. Kean Jr. (R)
51.7 — 48.3 · 2024 general election
def. Sue Altman (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.
FUNDRAISING
BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above
1.1 to 1
Rebecca Bennett$4.27M
Thomas H. Kean, Jr.$4.89M
PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC
Total receipts this cycle. Parity — neither campaign leads by enough for fundraising to take a place on the spectrum.