FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
A seat that went Republican by 3 points in 2024 is now priced for the Democrat.
Lean D
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Market · Likely DD 91.2¢: traders' price for a Democratic win, a flip from Republican.Polling · Toss-upD+4 (average of 2 pollsters, Sep 12).Prior result · Toss-upR+3.4 in 2024.MarketD 91.2¢PollsD+42024 resultR+3.4
MarketD 91.2¢PollsD+42024R+3.4
Market and polls both favor Bennett.
The market moved 3¢ toward the Democrat in the last 7 days.As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above
Z to A Research ↗May 24 to 26 · n=430 LVD+4D sponsorD+4 · D sponsor · counts as D+2 at half weight
Average of the latest poll from each of the 2 most recent pollsters; fewer than three polled in the last 30 days. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half.
Prior result
BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 12Likely12 to 25Safe25 and above
R+3.4
Thomas H. Kean, Jr. (R)
51.7% to 48.3% · 2024 general election
def. Sue Altman (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.
Total receipts in the 2025 to 2026 two-year cycle, through June 30, 2026; Kean leads 1.1 to 1, short of the 5 to 1 at which fundraising takes a place on the spectrum.
The general election is on November 3, which is 22 days away.