Elections Intelligence

Oregon 6th District

DEFENDED SEAT
SAFE D
Andrea Salinas Democratic · Incumbent
KALSHI PARTY MARKETCHECKED Aug 27
DEMOCRAT 98.3¢8.3¢
View market on Kalshi ↗
David Russ Republican · Challenger
Also on the ballot: Jason Faler (I).
FTP RACE SIGNAL

The market has run well past this seat's history — a 7-point Democratic hold in 2024, priced at 98.3¢ today.

Safe D
SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R
Market · Safe DD 98.3¢ — traders' price for a Democratic hold. Fundraising · Lean DD 126.14-to-1 in receipts. Prior result · Lean DD+6.85 in 2024.
Signal clarityMediumas of 2026-08-27
MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above
D 98.3¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

View market on Kalshi ↗
POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

No qualifying general-election poll has been retrieved for this race.

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above
D+6.85

Andrea Salinas (D)

53.34 — 46.49 · 2024 general election

def. Mike Erickson (R). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above
D 126.14 to 1
Andrea Salinas$1.61M
David Russ$12.8K

PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC

Total receipts this cycle.

BALLOT & DATES Primary 05-19 · HELDGeneral Nov 3, 2026 D settled · R settled · I settled COMPARE THE CANDIDATES ⇄