James E. Risch · Elections Intelligence

What the Signal reads

Lean R

Risch is the Republican incumbent, defending a seat the Signal rates Lean R. The market has Risch at 94.4¢ against Achilles's 6¢, up 1.2¢ since July 31. The polling average has Risch ahead by 1.9 points, and Risch leads 4.8 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗

Risch · Republican contract

94.4¢

▲ 1.2¢since July 31

This contract settles on whether a Republican holds the seat, not on James E. Risch by name.

Jul 3148 daily readings · high 96.6¢ · low 90.8¢Oct 12

James E. RischRepublican · incumbent

94.4¢

Todd Achillesindependent

6.0¢

Democratic lineNo candidate is named on this contract.

0.6¢

353,262 traded · 262,640 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Risch v Achilles

Metric by metric

Risch

Achilles

94.4¢

MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET

6.0¢

$3.36M

RaisedFEC, through June 30

$692.2K

$3.54M

Cash on handFEC, through June 30

$194.2K

49%

Latest pollPeak Insights, Risch sponsor · Sep 30

24%

U.S. Senatorsince 2009

Holds now

No office on file

The 2026 race

Idaho U.S. Senate

Polling average

Risch +1.9

Average of 3 pollsters, August 7 to September 30.

Prior result

R+29.4

2020 general election, won by James E. Risch.

Fundraising

4.8 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026, through June 30.