Jena Nelson · Elections Intelligence

What the Signal reads

Likely R

Nelson is the Democratic challenger for a seat the Signal rates Likely R. The market has Nelson at 11¢ against Bice's 90.4¢, unchanged since August 3. Bice leads 4.3 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗

Nelson · Democratic contract

11.0¢

Unchangedsince August 3

This contract settles on whether a Democrat holds the seat, not on Jena Nelson by name.

Aug 342 daily readings · high 18¢ · low 10¢Oct 12

Jena NelsonDemocratic

11.0¢

Stephanie I. BiceRepublican · incumbent

90.4¢

19,876 traded · 11,692 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Nelson v Bice

Metric by metric

Nelson

Bice

11.0¢

MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET

90.4¢

$449.4K

RaisedFEC, through June 30

$1.94M

$17.3K

Cash on handFEC, through June 30

$2.02M

No office on file

Holds now

U.S. Representativesince 2021

The 2026 race

Oklahoma 5th District

Prior result

R+21.4

2024 general election, won by Stephanie I. Bice.

Fundraising

4.3 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026, through June 30.