Pennsylvania 5th District — Elections Intelligence

FTP RACE SIGNAL

The market prices this seat about where its history left it — a 31-point Democratic hold in 2024, priced at 98.5¢ today.

Safe D

SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R

Market · Safe DD 98.5¢ — traders' price for a Democratic hold.Prior result · Safe DD+30.6 in 2024.Fundraising · Lean DD 106.56-to-1 in receipts.

Signal clarityMediumas of 2026-08-27

MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above

D 98.5¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

—

No qualifying general-election poll has been retrieved for this race.

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above

D+30.6

Mary Gay Scanlon (D)

65.3 — 34.7 · 2024 general election

def. Alfeia DeVaughn-Goodwin (R). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above

D 106.56 to 1

Mary Gay Scanlon$990.6K

Nick Manganaro$9.3K

PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC

Total receipts this cycle.