Elections Intelligence

Kris Mayes

AZAttorney General: AG under a pediment with the scales of justice
INCUMBENT Lean D to Likely D Likely to win
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What the Signal reads

Likely D

Mayes is the Democratic incumbent, defending a seat the Signal rates Likely D. The market has Mayes at 80¢ against Petersen's 21¢, up 6¢ since August 3. The polling average has Mayes ahead by 5.6 points, and Mayes leads 2.4 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗
Mayes · Democratic contract
80.0¢
▲ 6.0¢since August 3

This contract settles on whether a Democrat holds the seat, not on Kris Mayes by name.

Aug 342 daily readings · high 89¢ · low 70¢Oct 12
Kris MayesDemocratic · incumbent
80.0¢
Warren PetersenRepublican
21.0¢

32,986 traded · 19,246 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Mayes v Petersen

Metric by metric
Mayes
Petersen
80.0¢
MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET
21.0¢
$4.61M
RaisedState filings, through July 21
$1.86M
$1.62M
Cash on handState filings, through July 21
$259.2K
36.7%
Latest pollNextGen Polling · Aug 19
33.8%
Attorney General of Arizona
Holds now
No office on file

The 2026 race

Arizona Attorney General
Polling average
D+5.6

Average of 3 pollsters, August 13 to August 19.

Prior result
D+0.0

2022 general election, won by Kris Mayes.

Fundraising
2.4 to 1

Raised, through July 21.

The general election is on November 3, which is 22 days away.