DEFENDED SEATLikely RREDISTRICTEDWhy the lines changedFlorida redrew its congressional map in a 2026 special session. Gov. Ron DeSantis signed the new plan (HB 1-D) on May 4, 2026; it changed 21 of the state's 28 districts. It becomes much less Republican, going from Trump +34.6 to Trump +15.4 in the 2024 presidential vote.Source ↗
Gus M. Bilirakis (R) has held this seat since 2013 and is running for re-election; the district was redrawn in May 2026.
PresidentialR+34.6→R+15.4Same ballots, new mapThis district’s 2024 presidential vote, counted on the old lines (R+34.6) and the new (R+15.4). Same ballots, new map.
FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
This district was redrawn in May 2026; the 2024 result on the previous lines does not describe it. The market prices the new seat at 89¢ Republican.
Likely R
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Fundraising · Lean RR 8.5-to-1 in receipts.Market · Likely RR 89¢: traders' price for a Republican hold.Prior result · Safe RR+42.08 in 2024.FundraisingR 8.5 to 1MarketR 89¢2024 resultR+42.1
MarketR 89¢2024R+42.1FundraisingR 8.5 to 1
No public polls. The market favors Bilirakis.
The market moved 2¢ toward the Republican in the last 7 days.As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above
BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 10Likely10 to 20Safe20 and above
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Prior result
BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 12Likely12 to 25Safe25 and above
R+42.1
Gus M. Bilirakis (R)
71.0% to 29.0% · 2024 general election · previous district linesPrevious district linesFlorida redrew its congressional map in a 2026 special session. Gov. Ron DeSantis signed the new plan (HB 1-D) on May 4, 2026; it changed 21 of the state's 28 districts. It becomes much less Republican, going from Trump +34.6 to Trump +15.4 in the 2024 presidential vote.Source ↗
def. Rock Aboujaoude (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.