West Virginia 1st District — Elections Intelligence

FTP RACE SIGNAL

The market prices this seat about where its history left it — a 40-point Republican hold in 2024, priced at 96.5¢ today.

Safe R

SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R

Fundraising · Lean RR 6.76-to-1 in receipts.Market · Safe RR 96.5¢ — traders' price for a Republican hold.Prior result · Safe RR+40.21 in 2024.

Signal clarityMediumas of 2026-08-27

MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above

R 96.5¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

—

No qualifying general-election poll has been retrieved for this race.

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above

R+40.21

Carol D. Miller (R)

66.36 — 26.15 · 2024 general election

def. Chris Bob Reed (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above

R 6.76 to 1

Vince George$258.3K

Carol D. Miller$1.75M

PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC

Total receipts this cycle.